Reserve Bank of Australia

Fewer than 1 per cent of Australian mortgage borrowers owe more than their homes are worth, but global funding stress could still reach banks and super funds.

The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60 per cent, adding about $427 a month to the average mortgage, and says it will go again if inflation stays elevated.

Futures markets imply a 90 per cent probability of a 25 basis-point increase to 4.60 per cent this week, with major banks forecasting a second increase in November.

NAB, Deutsche Bank and UBS all tip a rise to 4.6 per cent at the Reserve Bank's next meeting, the dollar is back above 72 US cents, and the Treasurer will not say whether he thinks another rise is needed.

Bond markets moved fast on Wednesday. The Australian 10-year government bond yield reached 5.19 per cent, its highest level since July 2011, after the ABS confirmed GDP rose 0.4 per cent in the June quarter. Rate-hike talk got louder almost immediately. It shouldn't have.

Fixed-rate home loans, business credit lines and the federal government's own interest bill share one reference point: long-term borrowing costs. Australia's 10-year government bond yield has risen to about 5.19 per cent.

Treasury analysis estimates AI could boost Australia's labour productivity growth by 4.3 per cent over the next decade, adding approximately $116 billion to GDP and $4,300 to per capita incomes.

The monthly CPI indicator released on 26 August put the trimmed mean at 0.5 per cent for July 2026, the largest single-month rise in the core measure over the past year, against a market consensus of 0.3 per cent.