TLDR
Nine in ten economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent on Tuesday 29 September. A hike would add $427 a month to repayments on the average Australian mortgage, or $5,124 a year.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
What the market is pricing
ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures traded at levels implying a 90 per cent probability of a 25 basis-point increase at Tuesday's meeting.[1] The cash rate has sat at 4.35 per cent since the RBA's 12 August 2026 decision.[2]
Finder's RBA Cash Rate Survey, published 25 September 2026, recorded 37 of 41 economists and property experts expecting a 25 basis-point rise to 4.60 per cent.[3] All four major banks share that view. Commonwealth Bank economists led by Belinda Allen shifted their call to September, while Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis and ANZ Research both forecast a hike at this meeting.[4][5]
What it costs borrowers
A 25 basis-point rise would add roughly $427 a month to repayments on the average $736,259 Australian mortgage, equal to $5,124 over a full year. ANZ Research goes further in its outlook for borrowers, tipping a second hike in November that would carry the cash rate to 4.85 per cent and push the monthly repayment increase to $542 compared with January levels.[6]
Finder's panel found 48 per cent of respondents expect at least one further hike before 2027, so Tuesday may mark the start of another tightening leg rather than a single corrective move.[3]
Why the RBA is being pushed to act now
David Robertson, Head of Economics at Bendigo Bank, said: "The recent rebound in oil prices together with more evidence of elevated core inflation prior to this impact leaves the RBA with little choice but to increase official rates this month. Our forecasts had predicted this hike in November, but the timeline is now more compressed."[3]
Crude oil trading close to US$100 a barrel through August kept energy costs elevated. August CPI data, due Wednesday, is expected by NAB and CBA to push the headline figure to 4 per cent or above, leaving the Board little room to hold again.
What comes next for buyers and housing
Mathew Tiller, Director at LJ Hooker Group, said the housing market was already softening and another rise would compound the pressure. Tiller said inflation remains stubborn with upside risks from global events and labour market tightness, while prices decline and confidence weakens. Buyers will be more cautious and some vendors may hold off selling as household budgets come under further pressure, he said.[3]
ANZ Research expects a second 25 basis-point rise in November 2026, which would take the cash rate to 4.85 per cent, a level not seen in Australia for well over a decade.[6] The RBA Monetary Policy Board announces its decision at 2.30 pm AEST on Tuesday 29 September 2026.
SOURCES & CITATIONS
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