Albanese's popularity sinks to a record low in latest poll

By Margaret Hale · 2026-10-06

A one-point gap that keeps moving

There is something quietly remarkable about a polling series in which the lead keeps changing hands between the same two parties, and one of them is not the Coalition. The latest RedBridge and Accent Research national poll, conducted from 28 September to 2 October among 1,000 voters, found One Nation on 29 per cent of the primary vote, Labor on 28 per cent, the Coalition on 21 per cent, the Greens on 11 per cent and all Others on 11 per cent.^[1] One point separates first and second, inside a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points at 95 per cent confidence.^[2]

RedBridge Group Director of Research and Policy Simon Welsh said the changes were small and within that margin of error, but the pattern itself carries a different kind of weight. The lead has changed hands between One Nation and Labor several times this year in the RedBridge series.^[5] Six lead changes in six months tends to mean something, even when each individual shift does not.

The Albanese number

If the primary vote tells one story, the leader's approval rating tells a starker one. Anthony Albanese's net favourability in the RedBridge poll slumped 10 points to a record low of minus 27, the worst figure recorded in the series.^[4] Pollsters linked the deterioration to the most recent interest rate rise, which landed on an electorate already preoccupied with cost-of-living pressures. A prime minister's favourability rarely moves 10 points between surveys without something to explain it, and an interest rate rise explains it.

What the rival polls say

The RedBridge result sits in tension with polls taken in roughly the same period. An Essential Research poll of 1,008 voters conducted from 23 to 27 September gave Labor 29 per cent on the primary vote and One Nation 25 per cent, with Labor leading the Coalition 48 to 46 on two-party preferred terms.^[1] A Roy Morgan poll of 1,561 electors conducted from 14 to 20 September found Labor leading One Nation 54 to 46 on a two-party preferred basis when preferences are distributed for Coalition, Greens, Independent and Other Party supporters.^[3]

Roy Morgan Executive Chairman Gary Morgan said that when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the gap is closer, with the ALP leading the L-NP 52 per cent to 48 per cent.^[3] The three polls diverge less than they appear to; each two-party preferred result is sensitive to a single variable, namely where One Nation votes flow once they are distributed.

The Coalition's arithmetic problem

A primary vote of 21 per cent puts the Coalition in a structurally awkward position, one that requires One Nation preferences to flow heavily in its direction before the two-party arithmetic becomes tolerable. Minor parties and crossbenchers have played an outsized role in preference allocation since the May 2025 election, elevating Pauline Hanson's party beyond its traditional protest role and into something closer to a parliamentary arithmetic factor. Whether that elevation holds depends partly on where interest rates and cost-of-living sentiment sit by the time any election is called, and the next RedBridge poll will be watched for whether the lead changes hands again.

Margaret Hale

Margaret Hale writes about politics, policy and the culture of business. She is drawn to the people behind decisions and to the moments when a political story turns out to be a human one.