Houthis reject Yemen government's claim to a vital fuel route

By Margaret Hale · 2026-10-06

A strait, a claim and a denial

Wars produce a recognisable grammar of announcement. Locations fall. Targets are destroyed. Numbers arrive before the dust does. The Saudi-backed Yemeni government produced all three on 5 and 6 October, declaring that its forces had seized the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Dhubab district and the port of Mokha in an offensive it called Operation Dawn of Yemen. The Houthis, with equivalent confidence, said none of it was true.

Yemeni Armed Forces spokesman Majed al-Nazili said "Giants Brigades and the Nation's Shield forces had taken control of Bab al-Mandeb, while the Dhu Bab area and airport had come under government forces' control, with the road linking Dhu Bab and Mokha cut off and placed under effective fire control."^[1] Coalition spokesman Turki al-Malki said 100 fighter aircraft participated during the first hours of "Dawn of Yemen," adding that 324 "high-value" targets had been destroyed since the operation began.^[2]

A Houthi military source cited by the movement's Saba news agency dismissed the government's claims as "baseless."^[3] That single word does considerable work in a conflict where independent journalists cannot freely enter the theatre and satellite imagery takes days to interpret. Neither set of claims has been independently verified.

Why the strait concentrates minds

The Bab el-Mandeb is one of those places that matters structurally rather than sentimentally. Connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, it carries roughly 10 to 12 per cent of global maritime trade, including about 9 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products a day in 2023 according to the US Energy Information Administration, along with containers and vehicles.^[4] When it functions, it is invisible. When it does not, the consequences travel far.

Since 19 November 2023, the International Maritime Organisation has recorded 67 incidents of piracy and armed robbery against vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.^[5] Shipping companies rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of nautical miles and weeks to voyage times, costs that found their way into freight rates and, eventually, into prices at the bowser. For Australia, which imports most of its refined fuel, any sustained closure of the strait feeds through to the Singapore benchmark prices that set what motorists pay at the pump.^[6]

The human cost moving westward

While governments count targets and the shipping industry counts nautical miles, the International Organisation for Migration has been counting people. More than 85,000 have been displaced inside Yemen's western coastal areas as fighting has escalated, with over 2,000 fleeing by sea to Djibouti.^[7] The crossing to Djibouti, roughly 30 kilometres at its narrowest point, passes directly through the waters both sides now claim to control.

The pattern here is familiar enough: a government offensive produces large numbers and named locations, the opposing force denies each claim in turn, and months later analysts piece together what actually changed hands and when. The IOM's displacement figures carry the stubborn weight of people rather than press releases.

Margaret Hale

Margaret Hale writes about politics, policy and the culture of business. She is drawn to the people behind decisions and to the moments when a political story turns out to be a human one.