TLDR
The IMF projects Australian inflation at 3.9 per cent in 2026 and 3.1 per cent in 2027, above the RBA's target band and higher than almost every other advanced economy. The RBA board has kept the door open to further rate rises, with the cash rate sitting at 4.6 per cent.
Australia's inflation among highest in the advanced world, IMF data shows
The IMF projects Australian consumer price inflation at 3.9 per cent in 2026 and 3.1 per cent in 2027, keeping the country above the Reserve Bank's 2 to 3 per cent target band for at least two more years.[1] The figures come from the IMF Data Mapper published on 13 October, and place Australia among the worst performers on inflation across the entire advanced economy group.
Only six countries, Greece, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Croatia, Iceland and Andorra, are forecast to record higher inflation than Australia in 2026.[1] The IMF released the projections as part of its World Economic Outlook during the Annual Meetings in Bangkok, which also put global growth at 3.1 per cent in 2026.[2]
RBA keeps rate rise on the table
Minutes of the Reserve Bank Board's September 28 to 29 meeting state the board will raise the cash rate further "if required", after lifting it to 4.6 per cent in September.[3]
A November rate decision remains live, with the cash rate already at its highest level in more than a decade.
Business confidence falls
NAB's Monthly Business Survey for September recorded a four-point fall in confidence to minus 13.[4] Gareth Spence, Head of Australian Economics at NAB, said businesses are being squeezed from three directions: the interest rate and inflation outlook at home, ongoing global uncertainty, and elevated fuel and diesel costs.
The ABS Labour Force release for September 2026 is due Thursday 15 October at 11:30am AEDT.[5]
KEY TAKEAWAYS
SOURCES & CITATIONS
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
