High oil prices squeeze Australia before jobs and inflation tests

Oil shock sets the tone

A Houthi strike on Riyadh's international airport over the weekend has pushed energy markets into focus just as Australian investors return for one of the busiest data weeks of the quarter. Brent crude futures had already closed at US$104.47 a barrel on Friday 9 October^[1] before the attack. Higher oil prices feed directly into Australian petrol costs and business input expenses, complicating the Reserve Bank's task after its rate rise in late September.

Four US banks report, then inflation

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup are all scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Tuesday 13 October^[2], with JPMorgan's call set for 8:30 am Eastern Time and Wells Fargo's for 10:00 am Eastern Time.^[3] Reporting on the same day, the four banks will give markets a concentrated read on credit conditions, lending margins and the health of the US consumer against a backdrop of Federal Reserve tightening.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index for September 2026 at 8:30 am Eastern Time on Wednesday 14 October.^[4] That print lands before Australian markets open on Thursday and is likely to set the overnight mood heading into the domestic jobs release.

Australia's jobs test on Thursday

The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases Labour Force data for September 2026 at 11:30 am AEDT on Thursday 15 October.^[5] Westpac forecasts employment to rise by 20,000 and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.6 per cent,^[6] which would place unemployment inside the band Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock flagged in late September as the zone where labour market pressure begins to ease.

Bullock said that "I think between 4.5 and 5 will probably take enough heat out of the labor market that it'll ease pressure on inflation."^[7] The RBA has made clear it watches the trend across multiple months rather than any single print, and it lifted the cash rate again in late September as it works to bring inflation back to target.

LNG reservation scheme takes shape

Under the Albanese government's gas reservation scheme, LNG exporters will be required to supply 20 per cent of their export production to Australian buyers.^[8] The government is due to release the final version of the scheme this week.^[8]

ASX starts the week from 8,716

The S&P/ASX 200 closed at 8,716.6 points on Friday, up 0.40 per cent for the week.^[9] Energy stocks enter the week with a tailwind from crude prices, while rate-sensitive sectors will watch Wednesday's US inflation print and Thursday's jobs release for any shift in the global tightening outlook. The ABS Labour Force release at 11:30 am AEDT on Thursday 15 October is the domestic data point most likely to move the index before the week closes.