TLDR
The United States and Iran went a second straight day without new strikes, marking the first multi-day pause since hostilities reignited in late June. Oman, Qatar and Pakistan are brokering an interim ceasefire that would trade hostage releases and Strait of Hormuz passage guarantees for eased US sanctions on Iranian oil. The IRGC claimed it destroyed 11 US aircraft during the 15-day conflict, a figure Washington has not confirmed. Australian motorists are already feeling the conflict at the bowser, with the ACCC recording higher retail petrol and diesel prices in capital cities driven by elevated international refined fuel costs.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
A second day of silence
On 25 July 2026, neither the United States nor Iran launched new strikes against the other for a second consecutive day. It was the first multi-day pause since the conflict reignited in late June, following nearly two weeks of tit-for-tat strikes between the two countries.verifiedVerified Source: undocs.org No formal ceasefire exists. Washington confirmed no new operations overnight; Tehran said its forces remained at readiness.
The halt gives mediators the operational window they have been pressing for. Without a sustained break in strikes, shuttle diplomacy between Washington and Tehran cannot move past opening positions.
Who is mediating and what a deal would require
Oman, Qatar and Pakistan are leading mediation efforts aimed at an interim ceasefire.[2] The proposed framework has three interlocking parts: hostages held by Iran released, safe passage guaranteed for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, and a partial easing of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Each element is a precondition for the other two in the eyes of at least one party, making sequencing the central problem for diplomats.
UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric was direct on 12 July: "These attacks must all stop. He calls on all parties to exercise maximum restraint, avoid further escalatory action and take immediate steps to de-escalate."[2] UN Security Council Resolution 2817, adopted on 11 March 2026, had already demanded an immediate cessation of all attacks by Iran and reaffirmed that freedom of navigation through the Strait must be respected under international law.[1]
Iran's battlefield claims: take them as claims
IRGC Spokesperson Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi used the pause to put Tehran's version of the fighting on record. Mohebbi said on 25 July: "During a 15-day period, from July 6 to July 22, Iranian armed forces destroyed 11 American fighter jets and helicopters on the ground as they were stationed at American bases in the region."[4]
The IRGC claimed 11 US aircraft were destroyed between 6 and 22 July, a figure the United States has not confirmed and which cannot be independently verified.verifiedVerified Source: tasnimnews.ir Mohebbi's statement came on the same day both sides held fire, suggesting Tehran wants to enter any ceasefire talks from a position of declared strength.[4]
Oil markets and the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz sits at the throat of global oil supply, and even a temporary closure sends prices sharply higher. The International Energy Agency's July 2026 Oil Market Report, published on 10 July, recorded that global oil supply rebounded by 4.1 million barrels per day to 98.8 million b/d in June, driven by the resumption of flows through the Strait during an earlier pause in hostilities.[3] That single figure captures both how much supply was lost when the Strait was disrupted and how quickly markets recover when passage opens.
Global oil supply hit 98.8 million barrels per day in June 2026, a rebound of 4.1 million b/d tied directly to resumed Hormuz flows during the earlier ceasefire window.verifiedVerified Source: iea.org Traders are watching the mediation timeline closely. The current pause, if it holds and is formalised, would likely produce a similar supply bounce.
What it means at the Australian bowser
Australia imports refined fuel and is directly exposed to international price movements driven by Gulf disruptions. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's weekly fuel price monitoring update, published on 24 July 2026, recorded higher average retail petrol and diesel prices in capital cities and most regional locations, influenced by both changes to fuel excise tax and elevated international refined fuel prices tied to the Gulf conflict.[5]
The ACCC has tracked wholesale and retail petrol price movements weekly since Middle East escalation began earlier in the year. A sustained ceasefire that reopens the Strait to unimpeded commercial shipping would be expected to ease that international price pressure. Whether the current pause translates into a formal agreement, and how quickly any relief flows through to the bowser, depends on whether Oman, Qatar and Pakistan can close the sequencing gap in talks that resumed on 25 July 2026.
SOURCES & CITATIONS
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
What is the current status of the US-Iran conflict as of 25 July 2026?
Who is mediating ceasefire talks between the US and Iran?
Did Iran really destroy 11 US aircraft?
How has the Gulf conflict affected Australian petrol prices?
What does the Strait of Hormuz have to do with global oil supply?
Nadia Petrova writes about geopolitics, defence and foreign affairs. She is interested in how decisions made far away arrive on Australian shores.
