TLDR
Australia's combined capitals preliminary clearance rate jumped to 54.8% on the weekend of 11 July 2026, its highest mark in seven weeks, even as total auction volumes fell 8.7% to 1,318. Sydney posted a ten-week high of 57.5% and Adelaide topped all major cities at 59.1%, while Brisbane and Canberra lagged below 45%. The winter-lull dynamic, fewer vendors listing and keener buyers competing, is amplifying clearance figures heading into spring. Rate-cut expectations are adding fuel, with NAB chief economist Dr Sally Auld saying the next RBA move is down, though timing remains uncertain.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The headline numbers
The combined capitals preliminary clearance rate rose to 54.8% on the weekend of 11 July 2026, marking the highest reading in seven weeks and the first time above 50% in three weeksverifiedVerified Source: cotality.com, up from 49.8% the prior weekend.[1] Cotality published the preliminary figures on Sunday 13 July 2026.
Total auction volumes across the five major capitals dropped to 1,318, an 8.7% fall week-on-week and 8.0% below the same weekend a year ago.verifiedVerified Source: cotality.com[1] Fewer listings sharpened competition among buyers willing to act in mid-winter conditions.
City by city: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra
Sydney recorded a preliminary clearance rate of 57.5%, its best in ten weeks, despite volumes tumbling 18.7% both week-on-week and year-on-year to just 452 auctions.[1] The tighter supply concentrated competition at those auctions that did proceed.
Melbourne held 585 auctions, a marginal 0.3% increase week-on-week though still 6.8% below year-ago levels, and its preliminary clearance rate strengthened to 56.2%, up from 54.5% two weeks prior.[1] Melbourne's volume was the largest of any capital by a wide margin.
Adelaide posted the strongest clearance rate among the five capitals at 59.1%, rising sharply from 45.7% a week earlier, though its auction count fell 25.9% to 83verifiedVerified Source: cotality.com.[1] The small pool of listings appeared to concentrate serious buyer activity.
Brisbane was the volume outlier, logging 128 auctions, up 7.6% week-on-week and 25.5% above the same weekend last year, yet its clearance rate of 43.0%, while a sharp lift from 23.8% the prior week, remained the weakest of any major city.[1] Canberra held 60 auctions, down 4.8% from the previous week and flat year-on-year, with a preliminary clearance rate of 44.9%.[1]
Why clearance rises when volumes fall
Auction activity traditionally eases in mid-winter as both buyers and sellers step back. Vendors who do list in these conditions tend to be genuinely motivated, and the buyers who turn up are typically serious rather than casual browsers.
Cotality compiles preliminary clearance rates each Sunday by comparing known auction results, sold, passed-in and withdrawn, against total scheduled auctions, releasing a national weighted average and city-by-city breakdown.[1] Preliminary figures are later revised as additional results flow in, so the final rate for 11 July will shift when Cotality publishes the confirmed data.
Rate-cut expectations and the RBA backdrop
NAB chief economist Dr Sally Auld said the bank no longer expects the RBA to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points in August. "The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain. In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today," Auld said.[2]
NAB forecasts the cash rate to end 2027 at 3.6%.[2] That outlook aligns with a broader shift in market pricing the RBA's own board has acknowledged.
RBA Monetary Policy Board members said at their June 2026 meeting that financial market participants' expectations for the future path of monetary policy had eased noticeably since May, in response to lower global oil prices and weaker-than-expected data for both the labour market and headline inflation in Australia in April.[3] That shift in expectations has fed into bidder confidence, with buyers less concerned about further repayment increases.
What the mid-winter rebound sets up for spring
NAB's revised rate outlook removed an expected August hike and now forecasts the terminal cash rate at 3.6% by end-2027, a projection that underpins the cautious optimism creeping back into auction rooms.[2] If clearance rates hold above 50% through July, vendors will have stronger grounds to list in August and September when volumes historically surge.
Spring selling season typically brings a sharp volume increase across the capitals, so the clearance rate's ability to hold near or above 55% will face a much stiffer test once supply returns. Cotality will release a confirmed final clearance rate for the 11 July weekend in the days following the preliminary publication of 13 July 2026.
SOURCES & CITATIONS
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
What is a preliminary clearance rate?
Which city had the highest clearance rate on 11 July 2026?
What is NAB forecasting for the RBA cash rate?
Why did clearance rates rise while auction volumes fell?
Caleb Reed covers breaking news and sport for Bushletter. Fast and verb-led, he writes with a news-wire cadence and no patience for PR spin.
