Iran War Day 21: Trump Floats 'Winding Down' as Pentagon Ships 2,500 More Marines

On Friday evening Washington time, President Donald Trump posted that the United States was considering 'winding down' its military operations against Iran. Within 12 hours, the Pentagon confirmed 2,500 additional Marines were shipping out to the Middle East.

The contradiction has become a pattern over three weeks of war. Trump's social media declarations run in one direction while force deployments run in the other. The gap between presidential rhetoric and military reality is growing wider as the conflict enters its fourth week.

What Trump actually said

Writing on Truth Social, Trump claimed the US was 'getting very close to meeting [US] objectives' in Iran. He listed four goals: preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear capability, degrading Iranian missile systems and launchers, eliminating the Iranian navy and air force, and securing the Strait of Hormuz for international shipping.

The claim that these objectives are nearly complete appears optimistic against the evidence. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic. Iran launched another strike on Saturday against the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, with no radiation leakage reported. Iranian missiles continue to reach Israeli territory, with sirens sounding in Ashkelon on Friday afternoon.

You don't do a ceasefire when you're literally obliterating the other side.

— Donald Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, March 20, 2026

Hours before the 'winding down' post, Trump had told reporters on the White House lawn that there would be no ceasefire because the US was 'obliterating' Iran militarily. The shift in tone between the two statements was stark.

Marines head east as rhetoric shifts west

The Pentagon's force movements tell a different story from the president's social media. Three California-based amphibious assault ships carrying roughly 2,500 Marines are now heading to the Persian Gulf. This is the second significant deployment in a week, bringing the estimated total US troop presence in the region to approximately 52,500.

Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for the possibility of ground forces entering Iranian territory, according to multiple sources briefed on discussions. Planning has centered on potential deployments from the Joint Special Operations Command, the elite unit typically tasked with sensitive counter-proliferation missions.

Trump has consistently said he will not send ground troops into Iran. He has also consistently expanded air operations while increasing regional troop numbers. These positions are becoming harder to reconcile as the campaign extends into a fourth week.

F-35 takes fire over Iran

An Air Force F-35A Lightning II was forced to make an emergency landing at a US base in the Middle East on Thursday after being struck during a combat mission over Iran. The pilot is in stable condition and the aircraft landed safely, according to US Central Command spokesman Captain Tim Hawkins.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released video claiming to show the F-35 being targeted by Iranian air defences. The IRGC said the aircraft was struck at approximately 2:50 a.m. local time and was 'severely damaged.'

The incident marks the first known combat damage to an F-35 anywhere in the world. The stealth aircraft evades radar detection, but Iran has developed air defence systems using passive infrared sensors that home in on heat signatures rather than radar returns. This technique previously proved effective when used by Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen.

The F-35 is now one of roughly 20 US Air Force aircraft known to be damaged or destroyed in the nearly three-week-old conflict. Three F-15E Strike Eagles were shot down by a Kuwaiti fighter in a friendly fire incident on March 2. A KC-135 Stratotanker crashed in western Iraq on March 12, killing all six crew members. Around a dozen MQ-9 Reaper drones have been lost, some while parked during Iranian missile attacks.

The Strait remains closed

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a halt. Twenty percent of global oil and natural gas supplies typically transit this 33-kilometre chokepoint. The closure is the primary driver behind Brent crude prices at $112 per barrel, up 48% since the war began.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Kyodo News that Iran had not closed the strait, claiming it remains open for countries not attacking Iran. He offered to help Japanese ships transit safely. Japan depends heavily on Middle Eastern oil, with 70% of its imports passing through the Hormuz waterway.

The US and Israel are conducting extensive strikes to eliminate Iranian vessels and drones threatening shipping. A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft have been deployed specifically to target Iranian fast attack craft laying mines in the strait. The UK authorised US forces to use British bases for strikes on Iranian missile sites targeting Hormuz shipping on Friday.

The air campaign continues

Israeli Army Radio reported on Thursday that the combined US-Israeli force has destroyed approximately 85% of Iran's surface-to-air missiles. If accurate, the figure represents a substantial degradation of Iranian air defences, though clearly not complete given the F-35 incident.

Israeli strikes have targeted Iranian internal security forces across all levels of command. The IDF struck the 4th Artesh Naval District headquarters at Bandar Anzali port on the Caspian Sea, destroying dozens of vessels including an Iranian navy frigate. The port serves as a key supply route between Iran and Russia.

The air campaign against Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure has also continued, with satellite imagery showing damage to launch pads at the IRGC Shahroud missile facility in Semnan Province and multiple munition bunkers at Khorgu Missile Base north of Bandar Abbas.

The campaign has also targeted the Shiraz Electronic Industries complex repeatedly. SEI produces military electronics including radars, avionics, and missile guidance systems. The facility was struck on March 13 and again on March 18.

Oil markets respond

The Treasury Department lifted sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea on Friday, allowing buyers to purchase crude loaded onto ships before the exemption deadline, with the authorisation valid until April 19. The move marks a departure from Trump's maximum pressure sanctions strategy but has done little to move prices.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told employees the carrier is preparing for oil to reach $175 per barrel and not fall below $100 until late 2027. Average US petrol prices reached $3.91 per gallon on Friday, up from $2.92 a month ago.

Japan began releasing strategic oil reserves on Monday. The country holds supplies equivalent to 254 days of domestic consumption. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi met with Trump at the White House on Thursday to discuss a joint venture for stockpiling US-sourced crude.

What comes next

Twenty countries including the UK, France, Germany, and Bahrain issued a joint statement on Friday committing to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The coalition response suggests international partners are preparing for an extended conflict regardless of Trump's 'winding down' rhetoric.

Sources briefed on White House discussions told CBS News the administration is strategising methods to seize Iran's nuclear materials, potentially using Joint Special Operations Command forces, though no decision has been made on timing.

Natanz was struck again on Saturday, with the official Iranian news agency confirming the attack on the main enrichment site but reporting no radiation leakage, while the facility located 135 kilometres southeast of Tehran has been hit multiple times since the war began.

Trump's contradictory statements leave observers uncertain about US intentions, even as the military footprint expands, the air campaign continues at high intensity, and commercial shipping remains paralysed. Three weeks into the conflict, the gap between the president's words and the Pentagon's actions has never been wider.