One Nation Polls Ahead of Liberals in SA as Voters Head to Booths

ADELAIDE — One Nation is polling ahead of the Liberals in South Australia as voters prepare to head to the polls on Saturday, in what a political analyst has called a transitional moment in state politics.

A Newspoll survey of more than 1,000 South Australians published today in The Australian put primary support for One Nation at 22 per cent, ahead of the Liberals on just 16 per cent, with Labor leading the field on 40 per cent.

The poll was conducted between March 12 and 18. More than 360,000 early votes have already been cast, according to the SA Electoral Commission.

Historical significance

If One Nation were to finish second on election day, it would represent the first change to the modern two-party system that has dominated SA politics since the First World War.

For more than 100 years there's been no threat to the two-party dominance. There's no doubt it is a transitional moment in South Australian politics, and possibly a precursor for national politics.

— Clem Macintyre, Emeritus Professor of Politics, Adelaide University

One Nation has been cautious about how many seats it could win, but the party is feeling most hopeful about Mount Gambier, Frome, Mawson, Narungga and Flinders.

Liberal response

Liberal leader Ashton Hurn was asked by ABC News Breakfast whether she found the latest poll dis-spiriting. She said she was not focused on One Nation but acknowledged that support for the party had been fostered by disenchantment with mainstream politics.

She said many Australians and South Australians feel ignored. When people feel ignored they look to a party who might have the ability to spice things up, and that is why people are flirting with the idea of voting One Nation.

Hurn became Liberal leader around 100 days ago. She said the party had a mountain to climb but she would keep fighting until polls closed at 6pm on Saturday.

Premier's warning

SA Premier Peter Malinauskas attributed One Nation's strong polling to rising populism, which he said had now arrived at Australian shores and was worthy of great contemplation and consideration.

He warned that any political party that believes in the idea of safe seats is deluding themselves in the modern political context. If you take voters for granted, you are going to pay the price.

When asked whether he had seen a threat to the two-party system like this during his time in politics, Malinauskas said no during his early years, but yes over the last decade.

National implications

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese flew into South Australia on the final day of the campaign, stopping by the Whyalla steelworks where he highlighted the role of state and federal government intervention in securing the facility's future.

Albanese said Malinauskas deserved to be re-elected as premier. When asked whether One Nation's performance would send off alarm bells in Canberra, he said independents and fringe parties are not parties of government.

Albanese said independents and fringe parties can wait for decisions to be made and then decide whether to support them, but they cannot actually lead and make decisions, and that is the key difference.

Other parties

Greens SA Leader Robert Simms said the Newspoll showed the party was on track for its best ever result in South Australia. He said feedback at early voting centres had been positive, particularly in the Adelaide Hills seat of Heysen.

Nationals Leader Matt Canavan was also in Adelaide on Friday, pushing for oil and gas drilling in the Great Australian Bight. He said unlocking offshore oil and gas resources would help secure the country's liquid fuel security.

Liberal leader Hurn posted a video to social media showing a video chat with former Liberal prime minister John Howard, who told her that her energy in the campaign had been amazing.

What happens next

Polls open at 8am and close at 6pm on Saturday. Results are expected to begin flowing from around 6:30pm ACDT.

If One Nation performs as strongly as polls suggest, the result could reshape the political landscape in South Australia and potentially signal broader shifts in Australian politics.