Bitcoin's 14-Month Slide Against Gold May Be Over, Technical Indicators Suggest

Bitcoin has spent 14 months losing ground to gold, and the chart looks grim until you notice what happened the last three times it looked this grim.

The BTC/gold ratio has dropped 81% since early 2025, putting it in line with the 75-84% drawdowns seen in previous bear cycles. The weekly RSI fell to 21 in mid-February, its most oversold reading ever. The MACD is sitting at its lowest level in history and is about to produce a bullish crossover.

These patterns preceded 280%, 450%, and 620% Bitcoin rallies against gold in 2019, 2021, and 2023 respectively. The November 2022 bottom — the last time these indicators aligned — marked the start of a 700% run to the current all-time high of $126,000.

The 400-day pattern

Analysis from GeoMetric shows that the past three BTC/gold bear markets lasted between 12-14 months each. The current cycle has run for approximately 13 months. Duration alone does not guarantee a reversal, but combined with the RSI and MACD setup, the historical precedent is difficult to ignore.

Crypto analyst Fergani noted that Bitcoin has followed this pattern for over 13 years: a roughly 400-day bear market against gold, RSI falling into deeply oversold territory, and then recovery. The current setup matches those conditions exactly.

Technical analyst James Easto called the bottom on Friday, stating the stage is set for Bitcoin's recovery against gold. His analysis focused on the MACD bullish crossover forming at historical lows.

The $70,000 line

Bitcoin is trading above $70,000, where the 200-week exponential moving average and 50-day simple moving average converge. This zone has acted as major support during previous corrections.

Analyst AlphaBTC said he expects Bitcoin to recover to $80,000 before any move lower, but only if the price holds above $68,800. Losing that level would open a path to $50,000 or lower.

The weekly close on Sunday will be significant. A close below the 200-week EMA would be a bearish signal that challenges the bullish interpretation of the ratio indicators.

Gold's run complicates the picture

Part of Bitcoin's underperformance against gold stems from gold's own rally. The metal has benefited from geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the Iran conflict, and central bank buying. Gold hit new highs above $4,700 per ounce before pulling back to current levels around $4,650.

The BTC/gold ratio measures Bitcoin's performance relative to gold, so the ratio can fall either because Bitcoin drops, gold rises, or both. In this cycle, both factors have contributed.

A rotation back into Bitcoin from gold would require either stabilisation in geopolitical risk (reducing safe-haven demand) or a catalyst specific to crypto such as ETF inflows or regulatory clarity.

What the indicators actually show

The RSI reading of 21 in mid-February was the most oversold the BTC/gold ratio has ever been. Recovery from such extremes typically signals exhausted selling pressure. The current reading of 33 suggests momentum is shifting but remains in oversold territory.

The MACD producing a bullish crossover at historical lows is a stronger signal. In previous cycles, this combination of oversold RSI plus low-MACD crossover has been a reliable indicator of multi-month reversals.

Technical analysis offers probabilities, not certainties. The pattern recognition approach assumes future price action will resemble past cycles. Macro conditions, regulatory changes, or liquidity events could produce different outcomes this time.

The trade

For traders considering the BTC/gold ratio reversal thesis, the setup offers defined risk. A close below $68,800 invalidates the bullish case and suggests deeper losses. A hold above $70,000 with a subsequent move to $76,000-$80,000 would confirm the pattern.

The risk-reward favours patience. Waiting for confirmation of the pattern (a weekly close above $72,000, for example) would sacrifice some upside but reduce the chance of catching a falling knife.

Previous BTC/gold reversals took weeks to months to develop. The signals appearing now suggest the bottom may be forming, but the actual breakout often lags the initial indicator readings.