Your commute just got $150 more expensive this month

Sarah, a childcare worker in Penrith, drives 42 kilometres each way to her job in Parramatta. Four weeks ago, filling her Mazda 3 cost $85, and this week it cost $112, a difference of $27 per fill. She fills twice a week. That is $216 extra this month, on the same wage, doing the same job.

She is not alone. Since the Middle East conflict closed shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz in late February, fuel prices have jumped 31.8% nationally. For millions of Australians who have no choice but to drive, the maths is brutal.

The numbers hitting your wallet

The Australian Institute of Petroleum reported national average unleaded at 219.5 cents per litre for the week ending March 15, up from 166.5 cents four weeks earlier. Diesel hit 245.6 cents, climbing from 175.2 cents in late February. Sydney northern beaches stations crossed the $3 mark, while Fraser Island reported $3.60.

What does that mean in actual dollars? Let me calculate it for a household like mine growing up in Blacktown, where nobody caught a train because the train did not go where the jobs were.

• A 40km daily commute (average fuel economy 7.5L/100km) uses about 66 litres per month
• At 166.5c/L: $110 per month
• At 219.5c/L: $145 per month
• Increase: $35 per month, per commute
• Two-car household: $70-150 extra per month

Regional families get hit harder than those in metro areas because distances are longer and alternatives do not exist. Kent Dungavell, a truckie running goods from Townsville to the Gulf of Carpentaria, told media he burns 3,000 litres on a single round trip, which now costs $7,368 compared to $5,256 a month ago, an increase of $2,112 per trip.

Panic-buying might be justified for the individual, but it is harmful to society. It is a classic example of a collective action problem and a self-fulfilling prophecy. If everyone fills up today, it overwhelms the system and creates the shortage that was feared.

— Dr Scott French, Senior Lecturer in Economics, UNSW

Why the pumps are running dry

The immediate trigger is geopolitical, with Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupting oil shipments, and six tankers bound for Australia in April have been turned back or deferred.

But that explains why prices rose, not why we have 107 service stations in NSW without diesel and 42 completely dry. The panic buying did that. Demand jumped 50% in some areas as drivers filled tanks, jerry cans, and anything else that would hold fuel.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen said there was "no change to the amount of fuel available in the country" and "no need to panic buy." This is technically true and practically meaningless. People panic buy when they do not trust that fuel will be there tomorrow, and telling them not to panic does not build trust.

How we got here: 90% import dependence

Australia imports 90% of its refined fuel and has only two operational refineries left: Ampol Lytton in Brisbane and Viva Energy in Geelong.

Our fuel reserves sit at 36 days of petrol, 29 days of jet fuel, and 32 days of diesel, counting tankers at sea. The International Energy Agency recommends 90 days. Macrobusiness Chief Economist Leith van Onselen called our position "absolutely pathetic" and the result of decades of policy inaction.

The government released 762 million litres from emergency stockpiles this month, equivalent to six days of petrol and five days of diesel. A bandaid on a structural wound.

What happens next

If shipping disruptions continue past mid-April, formal rationing becomes possible. The last time Australia rationed fuel was during the 1970s oil crisis. The Liquid Fuel Emergency Act 1984 would impose purchase limits, with different amounts for light vehicles, rigid trucks, and articulated trucks.

Associate Professor Devika Kannan from Adelaide University said rationing becomes a possibility if the disruption exceeds 30 days. We are past two weeks, and the clock is running.

The Australian Trucking Association released a crisis plan this week. Chair Mark Parry said the terminal gate price of diesel increased more than 105 cents per litre since the conflict started, and the ATA wants immediate access to disaster recovery funding and a temporary reduction of the road user charge to zero from 32.4 cents per litre. That would cost the government $248 million per month but provide immediate cashflow relief to 60,000 trucking businesses.

Price comparison: then and now

• Unleaded petrol late February 2026: 166.5 cents per litre
• Unleaded petrol week of March 15: 219.5 cents per litre (up 31.8%)
• Diesel late February 2026: 175.2 cents per litre
• Diesel week of March 15: 245.6 cents per litre (up 40.1%)
• Some Sydney northern beaches stations: $3.00 per litre
• Fraser Island stations: $3.60 per litre
• Outback Queensland freight hubs: $2.80-3.00 per litre

What you can actually do about this

I grew up in a house where we checked petrol prices three suburbs over before driving anywhere, so here is practical advice for people who need to make their tank last.

First, do the maths on public transport. A weekly Opal cap in Sydney is $50, and if your commute costs more than that in petrol, you should switch, even if only for some days. Three train days a week at $50 total versus five driving days at $200 in fuel saves you $150 a month.

Second, check if work-from-home is still available. The IEA specifically urged this as a conservation measure. One day at home per week saves 20% of your commute fuel.

Third, slow down on the motorway. Driving 100km/h instead of 110km/h improves fuel economy by roughly 7-10%, which on a 50-litre tank means 3-5 extra litres of range, saving $7-11 at current prices.

Fourth, combine trips. Cold engines use more fuel, and one round trip instead of three short trips can reduce consumption by 20-30% for the same total distance.

Fifth, report price gouging. The ACCC launched a probe into major fuel suppliers including Ampol, BP, Mobil, and Viva Energy. If you see stations with prices wildly above the local average, report it at accc.gov.au. They are specifically looking at anti-competitive conduct in regional areas.

This is not just about petrol

Everything you buy arrives by truck. Jill Wilson runs a roadhouse and carpentry business 600 kilometres from Mount Isa, where every nail, screw, and piece of timber arrives by road freight.

This is business stuff we're talking about, but as a family, we live here too. It is very, very concerning. How long can you hold out with these kinds of price rises and what will happen in the future?

— Jill Wilson, Tirranna Springs Roadhouse, outback Queensland

Food costs are next. Adelaide University's Professor Kannan warned that surging diesel prices could trigger a 50% spike in food costs and collapse just-in-time logistics networks. The trucking industry has already told members to bring forward fuel levy adjustments, and those costs will appear on supermarket shelves within weeks.

For families already stretching budgets across rent, groceries, and childcare, the maths does not add up. I know what it is like to look at the bank balance and wonder whether you fill the car or fill the pantry. That is where too many people are right now.

The structural problem is decades in the making: we shut refineries, depleted reserves, and assumed global shipping would always flow. It is not flowing now, and the bill lands on people who never made those decisions.