> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bushletter.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# Valuers tip more home price falls before next spring
- URL: https://www.bushletter.com/valuers-tip-home-prices-to-fall-11-per-cent-by-late-2027/
- Published: 2026-10-14T06:30:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-14T06:29:59.000Z
- Description: National home values are already 5.2 per cent below their March peak, with almost every capital city suburb losing value in the September quarter.
- Author: Bushletter Newsroom
- Tags: Property, Australia, Australian Property Institute

TLDR

A survey of 384 property valuers forecasts Australian home prices will fall eight to eleven per cent from their March 2026 peak before recovering around September 2027\. National values have already dropped 5.2 per cent, with 97 per cent of capital city suburbs declining in the September quarter.

## Broad decline, clear timeline

The Australian Property Institute released a survey of 384 property valuers on 13 October 2026 forecasting national home prices will fall eight to eleven per cent from their March 2026 peak, with a recovery expected around the September 2027 quarter.[\[1\]](https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/property-valuers-dont-expect-a-housing-recovery-until-late-2027-as-their-near-term-outlook-slides.html?ref=bushletter.com) The API Market Outlook Index scored 4.3 out of 10 for the September quarter, with Victoria recording the weakest state reading at 3.7.[\[1\]](https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/property-valuers-dont-expect-a-housing-recovery-until-late-2027-as-their-near-term-outlook-slides.html?ref=bushletter.com)

Eighty per cent of API survey respondents named further interest rate rises as the main risk to the housing outlook.[\[1\]](https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/property-valuers-dont-expect-a-housing-recovery-until-late-2027-as-their-near-term-outlook-slides.html?ref=bushletter.com) Rate hikes have curbed buyer demand since mid-2022, and the majority of valuers surveyed see more rises as the key threat to any stabilisation.

## Where values stand now

Cotality's Home Value Index shows national dwelling values are already 5.2 per cent below their March 2026 peak.[\[2\]](https://discover.cotality.com/hubfs/Article-Reports/COTALITY%20HVI%20OCT%202026%20FINAL.pdf?ref=bushletter.com) An eleven per cent total fall from that peak would return Sydney and Melbourne prices to early-2021 levels, based on the same index.

Tim Lawless, Research Director at Cotality, said "97 per cent of capital city suburbs were down in value over the three months to end of September, highlighting the broad-based scope of this negative housing cycle."[\[2\]](https://discover.cotality.com/hubfs/Article-Reports/COTALITY%20HVI%20OCT%202026%20FINAL.pdf?ref=bushletter.com)

## Rental vacancy edges higher

Australia's national rental vacancy rate rose to 1.4 per cent in September 2026, up from 1.3 per cent in August, with 42,290 dwellings vacant nationally.[\[3\]](https://sqmresearch.com.au/uploads/13-10-26-National-Vacancy-Rates-September-2026-2042.pdf?ref=bushletter.com) Sydney reached 1.8 per cent, while Perth and Adelaide remained tight at 0.6 per cent.

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research, said "the national vacancy rate rising to 1.4 per cent suggests we are beginning to see a gradual easing in rental conditions, led by Sydney and Melbourne, where available rental stock has increased over the past year."[\[3\]](https://sqmresearch.com.au/uploads/13-10-26-National-Vacancy-Rates-September-2026-2042.pdf?ref=bushletter.com) The API survey places the forecast recovery window at around the September 2027 quarter, giving buyers and renters a rough marker for when conditions may shift.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

01Eight to eleven per cent total price fall forecast by 384 API-surveyed valuers from the March 2026 peak.

02National dwelling values already sit 5.2 per cent below the March 2026 peak, per Cotality data.

03Victoria scored the weakest state reading at 3.7 out of 10 on the API Market Outlook Index.

04National rental vacancy rose to 1.4 per cent in September, with Perth and Adelaide still tight at 0.6 per cent.

05Recovery is not expected to begin until around the September 2027 quarter, according to the API survey.

This article contains analysis and commentary on market conditions. It does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified adviser before making financial decisions.

SOURCES & CITATIONS

1. [Property valuers don't expect a housing recovery until late 2027, Business News Australia](https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/property-valuers-dont-expect-a-housing-recovery-until-late-2027-as-their-near-term-outlook-slides.html?ref=bushletter.com)
2. [Cotality, Home Value Index October 2026](https://discover.cotality.com/hubfs/Article-Reports/COTALITY%20HVI%20OCT%202026%20FINAL.pdf?ref=bushletter.com)
3. [SQM Research, National Vacancy Rates September 2026](https://sqmresearch.com.au/uploads/13-10-26-National-Vacancy-Rates-September-2026-2042.pdf?ref=bushletter.com)

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

How much have Australian home prices already fallen?

Cotality's Home Value Index shows national dwelling values are 5.2 per cent below their March 2026 peak as of October 2026.

When do valuers expect the housing market to recover?

The Australian Property Institute survey of 384 valuers forecasts a recovery beginning around the September 2027 quarter.

What is the biggest risk to the housing outlook, according to valuers?

Eighty per cent of API survey respondents named further interest rate rises as the main risk to the housing outlook.