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# Three banks now expect a Reserve Bank rate rise on 29 September
- URL: https://www.bushletter.com/three-banks-now-expect-a-reserve-bank-rate-rise-on-29-september/
- Published: 2026-09-04T21:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-04T21:00:00.000Z
- Description: NAB, Deutsche Bank and UBS all tip a rise to 4.6 per cent at the Reserve Bank's next meeting, the dollar is back above 72 US cents, and the Treasurer will not say whether he thinks another rise is needed.
- Author: Editor
- Tags: Finance, Australia, Interest rates, Reserve Bank of Australia, Economy

![Elias Thorne](https://res.cloudinary.com/dz77sb7j1/image/upload/v1774262579/bushletter/authors/elias-thorne.png)

By **Elias Thorne** · 2026-09-05

TLDR

National Australia Bank, Deutsche Bank and UBS now expect the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate to 4.6 per cent on 29 September, with UBS moving on Friday and citing inflation that is too high. The dollar is back above 72 US cents. Treasurer Jim Chalmers declined on Friday to say whether another rise is needed, saying the rises already in the system are putting pressure on people.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

01NAB, Deutsche Bank and UBS all forecast a cash rate rise to 4.6 per cent at the Reserve Bank's 29 September meeting.

02UBS changed its call on Friday, citing too-high inflation and a global growth backdrop led by an AI and trade boom.

03The economy grew 2.1 per cent over the year to June against the Reserve Bank's forecast of 1.9 per cent, and July inflation was 3.5 per cent.

04The Australian dollar finished Friday at 72.04 US cents; the ASX 200 slipped 0.16 per cent to 9,005.

05Jim Chalmers would not say whether another rise is needed: he is not going to give free advice to the independent Reserve Bank.

National Australia Bank, Deutsche Bank and UBS are all forecasting a Reserve Bank rate rise at its meeting on 29 September. That would take the cash rate to 4.6 per cent.[\[1\]](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/107113674?ref=bushletter.com) UBS changed its call on Friday, citing "too high" inflation.[\[1\]](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/107113674?ref=bushletter.com)

UBS wrote in the note that moved its forecast: "Globally, the growth backdrop looks even more positive, led by an AI/trade cycle boom, which is now also seeing global inflation pressure, & raising the risk of global central banks also hiking rates."[\[1\]](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/107113674?ref=bushletter.com) The Australian dollar climbed back above 72 US cents on Friday and finished at 72.04\. The ASX 200 slipped 0.16 per cent to 9,005 points.[\[1\]](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/107113674?ref=bushletter.com)

## What moved the forecasts

The national accounts on Wednesday showed the economy grew 0.4 per cent in the June quarter and 2.1 per cent over the year. The Reserve Bank's August forecast was 1.9 per cent.[\[4\]](https://www.bushletter.com/one-good-gdp-number-is-no-case-for-a-september-rate-rise/) Inflation was 3.5 per cent in July. The 10-year government bond yield reached 5.19 per cent on Wednesday, its highest level since 2011.[\[3\]](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/productivity-housing-migration-jim-chalmers-economists-growth/107097652?ref=bushletter.com)[\[5\]](https://www.bushletter.com/australia-s-10-year-bond-yield-hits-highest-since-2011/) Mining profits rose 6.8 per cent in the quarter while non-mining profits fell 1.1 per cent.[\[6\]](https://www.bushletter.com/company-profits-rise-1-8-per-cent-but-mining-did-all-the-work/)

Economist Saul Eslake said Australia's inflation rate had been inside the Reserve Bank's 2 to 3 per cent target on only two occasions in almost five years. The July figure, he said, had increased the odds of a rise at the September meeting.[\[2\]](https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-economic-life-wont-get-much-better-until-australians-climb-that-productivity-mountain-28228?ref=bushletter.com)[\[3\]](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/productivity-housing-migration-jim-chalmers-economists-growth/107097652?ref=bushletter.com) "Economists immediately strengthened their predictions of another interest rate rise," ABC business editor Ian Verrender wrote on Friday of the reaction to the growth figures.[\[3\]](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/productivity-housing-migration-jim-chalmers-economists-growth/107097652?ref=bushletter.com)

## The Treasurer will not say

ABC News Breakfast asked Jim Chalmers on Friday whether the economy needed at least one more rate rise to stamp out inflation. "I'm not going to give free advice to the independent Reserve Bank," he said. "I think it's self-evident that the interest rate rises in the system already are putting additional pressure on people." He added: "I don't think that's an especially controversial view to hold."[\[1\]](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/107113674?ref=bushletter.com)

"You can see in the national accounts, even, released in the last couple of days, the impact of those rate rises which are already in the system and will play out in the months ahead," Chalmers said. He said there were good reasons Treasurers of either political persuasion did not give free advice to the Reserve Bank.[\[1\]](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/107113674?ref=bushletter.com)

## What else moved on Friday

Brent crude held at US$95.52 a barrel, gold slipped 0.22 per cent to US$4,463 an ounce and Bitcoin fell 0.65 per cent to US$80,731.[\[1\]](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/107113674?ref=bushletter.com) Wall Street had closed higher overnight, with the Dow up 1.2 per cent, the S&P 500 up 1.06 per cent and the Nasdaq up 1.4 per cent. US futures pointed to a modestly positive open.[\[1\]](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/107113674?ref=bushletter.com)

The Reserve Bank board's decision is due on Tuesday 29 September. Bushletter argued on Wednesday that one growth print, driven by mining and an inventory revaluation, was no case for a rise. Three banks now disagree.[\[4\]](https://www.bushletter.com/one-good-gdp-number-is-no-case-for-a-september-rate-rise/)

SOURCES & CITATIONS

1. [Growing list of banks tip RBA interest rate hike this month, ABC News markets blog, 4 September 2026](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates/107113674?ref=bushletter.com)
2. [Grattan on Friday: economic life won't get much better until Australians climb that productivity mountain, The Conversation, 4 September 2026](https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-economic-life-wont-get-much-better-until-australians-climb-that-productivity-mountain-28228?ref=bushletter.com)
3. [Jim Chalmers is positive on growth but Australia's productivity problem persists, ABC News, 4 September 2026](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-04/productivity-housing-migration-jim-chalmers-economists-growth/107097652?ref=bushletter.com)
4. [One good GDP number is no case for a September rate rise, Bushletter, 3 September 2026](https://www.bushletter.com/one-good-gdp-number-is-no-case-for-a-september-rate-rise/)
5. [Australia's 10-year bond yield hits highest since 2011, Bushletter, 2 September 2026](https://www.bushletter.com/australia-s-10-year-bond-yield-hits-highest-since-2011/)
6. [Company profits rise 1.8 per cent, but mining did all the work, Bushletter, 2 September 2026](https://www.bushletter.com/company-profits-rise-1-8-per-cent-but-mining-did-all-the-work/)

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

When does the Reserve Bank next decide on rates?

The board's next decision is due on Tuesday 29 September 2026\. NAB, Deutsche Bank and UBS expect a rise of 25 basis points to 4.6 per cent.

Why did UBS change its forecast?

UBS cited inflation that is too high, and a global growth backdrop it describes as led by an AI and trade cycle boom that is now adding to global inflation pressure.

What did the Treasurer say about another rise?

Asked on ABC News Breakfast on Friday, Jim Chalmers said he would not give free advice to the independent Reserve Bank, and that the rate rises already in the system are putting additional pressure on people.

![Elias Thorne](https://res.cloudinary.com/dz77sb7j1/image/upload/v1774262579/bushletter/authors/elias-thorne.png)

[Elias Thorne](https://bushletter.com/author/elias-thorne/?ref=bushletter.com)

Elias Thorne writes about interest rates, the bond market and the Reserve Bank. He is interested in what monetary policy actually does to household budgets, and in the long stretches of economic history that tend to repeat.