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# Nvidia faces a $91 billion earnings test this week
- URL: https://www.bushletter.com/nvidia-faces-a-91-billion-earnings-test-this-week/
- Published: 2026-08-24T08:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-24T14:26:54.000Z
- Description: Nvidia set its own bar at $91 billion. That is the revenue midpoint the company guided for its second quarter of fiscal 2027, covering the three months ended 26 July 2026, and it is the figure that will determine whether Wednesday night's result reads as a beat, a miss or a shrug.
- Author: Editor
- Tags: Technology, US, Nvidia

![Vikram Singh](https://res.cloudinary.com/dz77sb7j1/image/upload/v1774262610/bushletter/authors/vikram-singh.png)

By **Vikram Singh** · 2026-08-24

TLDR

Nvidia drops its second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings after the US close on Wednesday 27 August. The company's own guidance sits at $91 billion in revenue, roughly 95 per cent above the same quarter two years ago. Wall Street expects $91.7 billion and $2.08 a share. China exposure, Blackwell supply and the durability of AI spending are the swing factors.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

01Nvidia's own guidance is US$91 billion in second-quarter revenue, plus or minus 2 per cent.

02Wall Street consensus sits near US$91.7 billion and about US$2.08 in earnings per share.

03Blackwell supply, China licensing and the October-quarter guide will decide the market reaction.

04The result reads through to Australian super funds and the ASX tech sector on Thursday.

Nvidia reports second-quarter results on Wednesday after the New York close, and its own guidance sets the bar: revenue of US$91 billion, plus or minus 2 per cent, which would be roughly 80 per cent growth on a year earlier. Wall Street consensus sits slightly above that midpoint, near US$91.7 billion and about US$2.08 in earnings per share.[\[1\]](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/nvidia-earnings-deck-next-week-200251512.html?ref=bushletter.com)

## Three things decide the reaction

First, Blackwell supply: whether the new architecture is shipping at the pace data-centre customers have booked. Second, China: Nvidia disclosed this month that its H200 licensing programme has yet to earn a dollar, so any revenue recognised there would be new information. Third, the guide: with the stock priced for continued AI build-out, the October-quarter forecast will matter more than the June-quarter print.[\[2\]](https://investor.nvidia.com/financial-info/financial-reports/?ref=bushletter.com)

The result reaches Australia quickly. Local super funds hold Nvidia both directly and through index exposure, and the ASX tech sector has traded in the American giant's shadow all year. A miss on Wednesday would show up on Thursday's board in Sydney.[\[3\]](https://tickeron.com/earnings/NVDA/?ref=bushletter.com)

Bushletter's reporting on the H200 China programme is [here](https://www.bushletter.com/h200-chips-trickle-into-china-as-us-shifts-to-case-by-case-review/), and on the AI revenue race [here](https://www.bushletter.com/anthropic-overtakes-openai-on-quarterly-revenue/).

SOURCES & CITATIONS

1. [Yahoo Finance: Nvidia earnings, three mission-critical themes](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/nvidia-earnings-deck-next-week-200251512.html?ref=bushletter.com)
2. [Nvidia investor relations: financial reports (primary)](https://investor.nvidia.com/financial-info/financial-reports/?ref=bushletter.com)
3. [Tickeron: NVDA earnings preview and consensus](https://tickeron.com/earnings/NVDA/?ref=bushletter.com)

![Vikram Singh](https://res.cloudinary.com/dz77sb7j1/image/upload/v1774262610/bushletter/authors/vikram-singh.png)

[Vikram Singh](https://bushletter.com/author/vikram-singh/?ref=bushletter.com)

Vikram Singh writes about banking. He follows where money actually moves, from the strategy set in head office to what changes on a customer's phone.