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# Goldman Sachs says AI is already cutting 16,000 US jobs a month
- URL: https://www.bushletter.com/goldman-sachs-says-ai-is-already-cutting-16-000-us-jobs-a-month/
- Published: 2026-08-20T06:00:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-20T05:59:59.000Z
- Description: Goldman Sachs Research has put a monthly figure on what was, until recently, largely a matter of conjecture: AI has shaved roughly 16,000 jobs a month from US payroll growth over the past year, enough to push the unemployment rate up by about 0.1 percentage points.
- Author: Editor
- Tags: Work, US, Goldman Sachs

![Jonas Valenti](https://res.cloudinary.com/dz77sb7j1/image/upload/v1774262594/bushletter/authors/jonas-valenti.png)

By **Jonas Valenti** · 2026-08-20

TLDR

Goldman Sachs Research estimates AI has cut monthly US payroll growth by roughly 16,000 jobs over the past year, nudging unemployment up 0.1 percentage points. Gross displacement runs at 25,000 positions a month, partially offset by 9,000 new AI-adjacent roles. Younger and entry-level workers bear the heaviest losses.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

01Goldman Sachs Research estimated AI reduced US monthly payroll growth by roughly 16,000 jobs over the past year.

02Gross AI displacement reached about 25,000 jobs a month, offset by around 9,000 new AI-adjacent roles created.

03Technology, management consulting, graphic design and customer service face the greatest occupational pressure from AI.

04Goldman revised its net monthly drag estimate down to approximately 11,000 positions by June 2026.

05Roughly 15 million American workers, about 9 per cent of the workforce, could be displaced over a decade.

## The number behind the headline

Goldman Sachs Research has put a monthly figure on what was, until recently, largely a matter of conjecture: AI has shaved roughly 16,000 jobs a month from US payroll growth over the past year, enough to push the unemployment rate up by about 0.1 percentage points. [\[1\]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-jobs-ai-is-likely-to-boost-and-those-it-may-disrupt.html?ref=bushletter.com) Spread across twelve months, that adds up to close to 200,000 positions that payroll data effectively never counted.

The bank's research note, published in April 2026, is careful to distinguish gross displacement from the net figure. According to Goldman Sachs Research, gross AI displacement runs at approximately 25,000 jobs a month, while new roles tied to AI tools are being created at roughly 9,000 a month, leaving the net drag at around 16,000\. [\[1\]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-jobs-ai-is-likely-to-boost-and-those-it-may-disrupt.html?ref=bushletter.com) The creation side of the ledger is real, but it is running at barely a third of the destruction side.

## Who is absorbing the blow

Goldman's analysis is specific about which workers are in the firing line. Technology, management consulting, graphic design and customer service face the sharpest pressure, the sectors where AI tools have moved fastest from novelty to operational substitute. [\[1\]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-jobs-ai-is-likely-to-boost-and-those-it-may-disrupt.html?ref=bushletter.com) These are not marginal roles; they make up a large slice of the white-collar labour market that graduates have historically entered first.

According to Goldman Sachs Research, the negative effects of AI on job creation have fallen largely on younger, less-experienced workers. [\[1\]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-jobs-ai-is-likely-to-boost-and-those-it-may-disrupt.html?ref=bushletter.com) Entry-level roles are the ones most easily decomposed into discrete, automatable tasks, and employers hiring at the margin are substituting software before they substitute experienced staff. Gen Z workers entering white-collar employment are arriving into a labour market structurally different from the one that absorbed millennials a decade ago.

The Australian graduate hiring market mirrors this exposure almost precisely. Entry-level white-collar roles, the analyst seats, the junior consultant positions, the customer-facing digital roles, dominate graduate hiring pipelines here just as they do in the United States.

## Gross versus net, and the revision

By June 2026, Goldman's economists had revised the monthly net drag figure downward to approximately 11,000 positions, as the bank updated its broader labour market modelling. Joseph Briggs, Co-Head of the Global Economics Team at Goldman Sachs Research, said there's probably a 10 to 15,000 drag on month-over-month job growth from AI impacts. [\[3\]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/how-will-ai-impact-the-labor-market.html?ref=bushletter.com) A separate Goldman research note put underlying trend job growth at about 11,000 jobs per month, already below the threshold needed to keep employment stable. [\[2\]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/us-gdp-growth-is-projected-to-outperform-economist-forecasts-in-2026.html?ref=bushletter.com)

The gap between the April and June estimates suggests the models are live and being updated as new payroll data comes in, not fixed forecasts handed down once. The direction, a meaningful monthly drag attributable specifically to AI substitution, has not changed; the magnitude is being refined as the effect becomes easier to isolate from cyclical noise.

## The decade view

Goldman's longer-run projection is where the numbers become genuinely large. Goldman Sachs Research expects that AI-related displacement will affect roughly 9 per cent of American workers, equivalent to about 15 million individuals, over a decade. [\[3\]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/how-will-ai-impact-the-labor-market.html?ref=bushletter.com) Briggs framed it against a productivity baseline: "Under our baseline forecast for a 15% uplift to productivity following full adoption of AI, around nine percent of all workers in the US will be reallocated to new positions during the AI transition." [\[3\]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/how-will-ai-impact-the-labor-market.html?ref=bushletter.com)

The word "reallocated" carries weight in that sentence. It implies those workers find new roles rather than exit employment permanently, which is Goldman's baseline assumption, not a guaranteed outcome. History suggests reallocation takes longer than projections assume, and the workers least equipped to retrain quickly are the ones already absorbing the most immediate pain.

At 15 million workers over ten years, the displacement rate averages 1.5 million people a year, or roughly 125,000 a month across the whole economy. Set against the monthly net drag figure of 11,000 to 16,000, those numbers are measuring different things: the payroll drag captures jobs not created at the margin today, while the decade estimate captures cumulative occupational churn across the whole labour force as AI adoption deepens and widens.

## What the figures do and do not tell us

Goldman's estimates are internal model outputs, not official government labour statistics. They represent the bank's analysis of AI's capacity to substitute for and augment human labour, built on its own assumptions about adoption rates and productivity uplift. [\[1\]](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-jobs-ai-is-likely-to-boost-and-those-it-may-disrupt.html?ref=bushletter.com) Other economists have challenged the pace of automation assumptions embedded in this style of modelling, and the 9,000 jobs-created figure could rise sharply if AI tool adoption generates categories of work not yet visible in the data.

What Goldman's figures do establish is a credible order of magnitude and a direction. The monthly drag is real, measurable in aggregate payroll data even if not yet labelled as an AI effect in official releases, and it is falling on a specific and identifiable demographic. For hiring managers, graduates entering the workforce this year, and policymakers thinking about the timing and scale of workforce transition support, the 16,000-a-month figure is a concrete starting point rather than speculation.

This article contains analysis and commentary on market conditions. It does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified adviser before making financial decisions.

SOURCES & CITATIONS

1. [The jobs AI is likely to boost and those it may disrupt, Goldman Sachs Research](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-jobs-ai-is-likely-to-boost-and-those-it-may-disrupt.html?ref=bushletter.com)
2. [US GDP growth is projected to outperform economist forecasts in 2026, Goldman Sachs Research](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/us-gdp-growth-is-projected-to-outperform-economist-forecasts-in-2026.html?ref=bushletter.com)
3. [How will AI impact the labour market, Goldman Sachs Exchanges](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/goldman-sachs-exchanges/how-will-ai-impact-the-labor-market.html?ref=bushletter.com)

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What does Goldman Sachs Research say AI is doing to US job growth?

Goldman Sachs Research estimates AI has reduced monthly US payroll growth by roughly 16,000 jobs over the past year, pushing the unemployment rate up by about 0.1 percentage points.

How many jobs is AI creating versus destroying each month?

Goldman estimates gross AI displacement at about 25,000 jobs a month, partially offset by roughly 9,000 new AI-adjacent roles, producing a net monthly drag of around 16,000 positions.

Which workers are most affected by AI-related job losses?

Younger and less-experienced workers bear the heaviest share of losses. Occupations in technology, management consulting, graphic design and customer service face the greatest pressure.

What is Goldman's long-run outlook for AI and US employment?

Goldman Sachs Research projects that roughly 9 per cent of US workers, about 15 million people, will be displaced and reallocated to new roles over a decade as AI adoption deepens.

![Jonas Valenti](https://res.cloudinary.com/dz77sb7j1/image/upload/v1774262594/bushletter/authors/jonas-valenti.png)

[Jonas Valenti](https://bushletter.com/author/jonas-valenti/?ref=bushletter.com)

Jonas Valenti writes about search and how businesses get discovered. He has spent years watching what makes a company visible online, and is unsentimental about tactics that no longer work.

Important

This article contains general information about economic research and labour market analysis. It does not constitute financial advice. Goldman Sachs Research estimates are based on the bank's internal modelling and assumptions about AI adoption rates and productivity uplift, which may differ from actual outcomes. Before making any employment, investment or financial decisions, consult with a qualified financial adviser.